Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The mean figure of everyday homicides monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have warned that murder data might not point to better countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it might mask periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by high violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.